Archívy Public Finances - Rada pre rozpočtovú zodpovednosť https://www.rrz.sk/en/category/public-finances-en/ Nezávislý orgán monitorovania a hodnotenia vývoja hospodárenia Slovenskej republiky Tue, 20 Jun 2023 08:21:47 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.1.3 Report on the Long-term Sustainability of Public Finances (April 2022) https://www.rrz.sk/en/report-on-the-long-term-sustainability-of-public-finances-april-2022/ Tue, 17 May 2022 09:29:26 +0000 https://www.rrz.sk/?p=14185 The baseline scenario presented in this report is based on the end of 2021 and captures the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on the long-term sustainability of public finances, but does not take into account consequences of the war in Ukraine . The Council notes that the long-term sustainability of public finances was not achieved […]

Príspevok Report on the Long-term Sustainability of Public Finances (April 2022) je zobrazený ako prvý na Rada pre rozpočtovú zodpovednosť.

]]> The baseline scenario presented in this report is based on the end of 2021 and captures the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on the long-term sustainability of public finances, but does not take into account consequences of the war in Ukraine . The Council notes that the long-term sustainability of public finances was not achieved even in 2021.

However, the most recent results for the 2021 budget, along with the revised results for 2020, indicate a clear turning point as the long-term sustainability indicator improved deeper into the medium-risk zone and reached 3.85% of GDP (EUR 4.1 billion) .

The long-term sustainability of public finances has significantly deteriorated in 2019 in particular due to legislative changes in the pension system , as well as a worsened budgetary policy (i.e., an increase in the structural deficit in comparison with 2018). At the end of 2019, when Slovakia enjoyed economically good times and unemployment was at all-time lows, public finances came very near to the high-risk threshold.

Sustainability continued to deteriorate also during the first months of 2020 (e.g., a significant increase in public sector wages, along with the introduction of the 13th pension payments, albeit with no additional resources allocated for this purpose), which contributed to public finances entering the high-risk zone in sustainability in February 2020 (with the long-term sustainability indicator reaching 5.2% of GDP).

The original estimates from April 2021 suggested even further deterioration of the long-term sustainability of public finances for 2020 to 5.6% of GDP, in particular, due to the outbreak of the pandemic. However, after taking into account the revised results of fiscal performance for 2020 and updated forecasts of implicit liabilities associated with population ageing , the value of the long-term sustainability indicator reached 4.18% of GDP at the end of 2020 despite the pandemic, thus falling within the medium-risk zone.

Príspevok Report on the Long-term Sustainability of Public Finances (April 2022) je zobrazený ako prvý na Rada pre rozpočtovú zodpovednosť.

]]> SIMTASK: A Microsimulation model of the Slovak Tax-Benefit System https://www.rrz.sk/en/simtask-a-microsimulation-model-of-the-slovak-tax-benefit-system/ Tue, 18 Aug 2015 12:03:58 +0000 https://www.rrz.sk/simtask-a-microsimulation-model-of-the-slovak-tax-benefit-system/ In this paper we introduce a microsimulation model of the Slovak tax and transfer system SIMTASK.

Príspevok SIMTASK: A Microsimulation model of the Slovak Tax-Benefit System je zobrazený ako prvý na Rada pre rozpočtovú zodpovednosť.

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It presents a complex toolkit for static microsimulations. Compared to earlier version of the CBR microsimulation model, simulated results are closer to reality. This has been achieved by recalibrating sample weights of the input database, where the income distribution has been taken into account directly. The improved fit is documented by validating the tax and transfer aggregates using both the original sample weights and the new ones against external data.

Along with some other refinements to the model and external data considerations, the paper concludes that the validity of SIMTASK improved in terms of personal income tax simulations, social security contributions simulations, as well as simulations of family related benefits.

Keywords: microsimulation, EUROMOD, tax and transfer policy, Slovakia

JEL classification: C81, I38, H24

Príspevok SIMTASK: A Microsimulation model of the Slovak Tax-Benefit System je zobrazený ako prvý na Rada pre rozpočtovú zodpovednosť.

]]> Finding Yeti https://www.rrz.sk/en/finding-yeti/ Mon, 10 Mar 2014 08:05:23 +0000 https://www.rrz.sk/finding-yeti/ Estimates of potential output and the output gap are essential elements in the toolkit of policy makers. Latest changes in the European fiscal framework have strengthened significantly the role of structural budget balances, which rest on output gap calculations.

Príspevok Finding Yeti je zobrazený ako prvý na Rada pre rozpočtovú zodpovednosť.

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With the adoption of the Fiscal Compact new procedures are entering into force. Independent fiscal institutions are going to play an important role in triggering correction mechanisms. In our view, the new framework will be credible only if meaningful estimates of output gaps and structural budget balances are available in real time. This is a huge problem especially for small countries with short history and many structural breaks, where the estimation of output gap is more an art than a science. Very volatile estimates of output gap with weak information content can quickly undermine the credibility of independent fiscal institutions. In this working paper we critically review the current estimation techniques in Slovakia and propose a new framework to calculate more robust output gap figures. In a companion paper we deal with possible improvements in the estimation of structural budget balances.

Keywords: output gap, potential output
JEL classification: E23, C22, C32

Príspevok Finding Yeti je zobrazený ako prvý na Rada pre rozpočtovú zodpovednosť.

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