• CBR has slightly increased its estimate of the 2026 GG deficit. Compared with the June forecast, the expected deficit has slightly increased by EUR 27 million mainly due to faster-than-expected spending of state budget current expenditures.
• According to the CBR, the 2026 deficit could reach 4.4 % of GDP (EUR 6.2 billion), if the government does not adopt additional measures. This represents a negative deviation of 0.3 % of GDP (EUR 389 million) from the approved budget amounts, indicating a medium level of risk that the public deficit will exceed the government’s objective.
• Compared to the government’s estimate published in the Annual Progress Report 2026 for Slovakia, the level of the CBR deficit forecast is almost identical (a difference is EUR 33 million).
• The most significant negative deviation in the CBR forecast compared to the budget is the shortfall in taxes and social and healthcare contributions amounting to 0.3 % of GDP (EUR 437 million), mainly due to lower-than-expected CIT and VAT. The CIT shortfall is due to unexpected decline in the 2025 revenue, based on the corporate tax returns submitted to date. On the other hand, slower growth in household consumption than assumed in the budget is expected to reduce VAT revenue.

Príspevok The estimated deficit for 2026 remains almost unchanged; the budget target may be exceeded by 0.3 % of GDP (EUR 389 million) (Budgetary Traffic Light July 2026) je zobrazený ako prvý na Rada pre rozpočtovú zodpovednosť.

• CBR has slightly increased its estimate of the 2026 GG deficit. Compared with the May forecast, the expected deficit has increased by EUR 118 million mainly due to faster growth in the wage bill and expenditure related to the EU Recovery and Resilience Plan.
• According to the CBR, the 2026 deficit could reach 4.4 % of GDP (EUR 6.2 billion), if the government does not adopt additional measures. This represents a negative deviation of 0.3 % of GDP (EUR 361 million) from the approved budget amounts, indicating a medium level of risk that the public deficit will exceed the government’s objective.
• Compared to the government’s estimate published in the Annual Progress Report 2026 for Slovakia, the level of the CBR deficit forecast is almost identical (a difference is EUR 5 million).
• The most significant negative deviation in the CBR forecast compared to the budget is the shortfall in taxes and social and healthcare contributions amounting to 0.4 % of GDP (EUR 527 million), mainly due to lower-than-expected CIT and VAT. The CIT shortfall is due to unexpected decline in the 2025 revenue, based on the corporate tax returns submitted to date. On the other hand, slower growth in household consumption than assumed in the budget is expected to reduce VAT revenue.

Príspevok Faster expenditure growth raises the projected 2026 deficit; the budget target may be exceeded by 0.3 % of GDP (EUR 361 million) (Budgetary Traffic Light June 2026) je zobrazený ako prvý na Rada pre rozpočtovú zodpovednosť.

• CBR has slightly decreased the estimated level of GG deficit in 2026. Compared with the April forecast, the expected deficit has decreased by EUR 46 million mainly due to reduced shortfall in estimated tax and social contribution revenues.
• According to the CBR, the 2026 deficit can reach the level of 4.3 % of GDP (EUR 6.1 bn.), under the assumption that the government does not take additional measures. Negative deviation from the approved budget amounts to 0.2 % of GDP (EUR 248 million), which means the medium-level risk of the public deficit level exceeding the government objective.
• Compared to the government’s estimate published in the Annual Progress Report 2026 for Slovakia, the level of the CBR deficit forecast is lower by 0.1 % of GDP (EUR 97 million) mainly due to better estimated financial performance of other GG entities.
• The most significant negative deviation in the CBR forecast compared to the budget is the shortfall in taxes and social and healthcare contributions amounting to 0.4 % of GDP (EUR 635 million), mainly due to lower-than-expected VAT and CIT. The shortfall compared to the budget is mainly caused by less favorable economic development than was originally assumed in the budget. Slower growth in household consumption will reduce VAT revenues and lower nominal wages are pushing down social contributions and labor taxes.

Príspevok The estimated deficit for 2026 decreased slightly; nevertheless, the budget target may be exceeded by 0.2 % of GDP (EUR 248 million) (Budgetary Traffic Light May 2026) je zobrazený ako prvý na Rada pre rozpočtovú zodpovednosť.

• CBR estimates the level of the GG deficit for 2026 to remain nearly unchanged. Compared with the March forecast, the expected deficit has changed only marginally, increasing by EUR 3 million.
• According to the CBR, the 2026 deficit can reach the level of 4.3 % of GDP (EUR 6.2 bn.), under the assumption that the government does not take additional measures. Negative deviation from the approved budget amounts to 0.2 % of GDP (EUR 312 million), which means the medium-level risk of the public deficit level exceeding the government objective.
• The most significant negative deviation in the CBR forecast compared to the budget is the shortfall in taxes and social and healthcare contributions amounting to 0.6 % of GDP (EUR 833 million), mainly due to lower-than-expected VAT and labor taxes. The shortfall compared to the budget is mainly caused by less favorable economic development than was originally assumed in the budget. Slower growth in household consumption will reduce VAT revenues and lower nominal wages are pushing down social contributions and labor taxes.
• On the other hand, the most significant positive impact on the GG balance compared to the budget comes from the better financial performance of other GG entities, mainly public transport companies and public universities.

Príspevok The estimated deficit for 2026 remains unchanged, the budget target may be exceeded by 0.2 % of GDP (EUR 312 million) (Budgetary Traffic Light April 2026) je zobrazený ako prvý na Rada pre rozpočtovú zodpovednosť.

• CBR has decreased the estimated level of GG deficit in 2026. Compared with the February forecast, the expected deficit has decreased by EUR 237 million mainly due to better financial performance of other GG entities and lower state budget investments reflecting developments in 2025.
• According to the CBR, the 2026 deficit can reach the level of 4.3 % of GDP (EUR 6.1 bn.), under the assumption that the government does not take additional measures. Negative deviation from the approved budget amounts to 0.2 % of GDP (EUR 327 million), which means the medium-level risk of the public deficit level exceeding the government objective.
• The most significant negative deviation in the CBR forecast compared to the budget is the shortfall in taxes and social and healthcare contributions amounting to 0.5 % of GDP (EUR 774 million), mainly due to lower-than-expected VAT and CIT. The shortfall compared to the budget is mainly caused by less favorable economic development than was originally assumed in the budget. Slower growth in household consumption will reduce VAT revenues and lower minimum wages are pushing down social contributions and labor taxes.
• On the other hand, the most significant positive impact on the GG balance compared to the budget comes from the better financial performance of other GG entities, mainly public transport companies and public universities.

Príspevok The estimated deficit has decreased to EUR 6.1 bn., the budget target may still be exceeded by 0.2 % of GDP (EUR 327 million) (Budgetary Traffic Light March 2026) je zobrazený ako prvý na Rada pre rozpočtovú zodpovednosť.

• CBR has increased the estimated level of GG deficit in 2026. Compared with the January forecast, the deficit has risen by EUR 186 million mainly due to lower estimated tax revenues.
• According to the CBR, the 2026 deficit can reach the level of 4.5 % of GDP (EUR 6.4 bn.), under the assumption that the government does not take additional measures. Negative deviation from the approved budget amounts to 0.4 % of GDP (EUR 565 million), which means the medium-level risk of the public deficit level exceeding the government objective.
• The most significant negative deviation in the CBR forecast compared to the budget is the shortfall in taxes and social and healthcare contributions amounting to 0.5 % of GDP (EUR 766 million), mainly due to lower-than-expected VAT and labor taxes. The shortfall compared to the budget is mainly caused by less favorable economic development than was originally assumed in the budget, the slower growth is estimated for household consumption and nominal wages.
• The CBR identifies additional risks compared to the budget in the worse financial performance of local governments caused by additional expenditures associated with the municipal election year, as well as in higher healthcare spending due to the expected failure to fully implement the declared savings measures.
• On the other hand, the most significant positive impact on the GG balance compared to the budget comes from the better financial performance of other GG entities, mainly public universities and public transport companies.

Príspevok The tax shortfall increases the estimated deficit to EUR 6.4 bn., the budget target can be exceeded by 0.4 % of GDP (EUR 565 million) (Budgetary Traffic Light February 2026) je zobrazený ako prvý na Rada pre rozpočtovú zodpovednosť.

• CBR publishes its first release of the budgetary traffic light for 2026. In addition to the GG balance forecast, it includes an estimate of net expenditure growth in cumulative terms (according to the European fiscal limits) and an evaluation of compliance with public expenditure ceilings (according to domestic legislation). At the same time, the assessment accounts for the EU defense exemption, i.e. not accounting for increase in defense expenditures above its 2021 levels.
• According to the CBR, the 2026 deficit can reach the level of 4.4 % of GDP (EUR 6.2 bn.), under the assumption that the government does not take additional measures. Negative deviation from the approved budget amounts to 0.3 % of GDP (EUR 402 million), which means the medium-level risk of the public deficit level exceeding the government objective.
• The most significant negative deviation in the CBR forecast compared to the budget is due to lower expected tax revenue and social and healthcare contributions, mainly labor taxes and VAT.
• As a part of the budgetary traffic light, CBR estimates the net expenditure growth, which according to the current European fiscal rules cannot exceed the maximum allowed growth rate. The cumulative growth of net expenditure is estimated at 7.4 %, which is slower by 3.8 p.p. than the allowed growth[1] CBR also estimates the fulfillment of the nominal public expenditure ceiling approved in the budget. According to the CBR, the estimated public expenditure can reach EUR 61.6 bn., so the expenditure ceiling approved by the parliament should not be exceeded.
• Regarding the 2025 GG deficit, CBR has reduced the estimated level of the deficit compared to the December 2025 forecast by EUR 161 million. According to the CBR, the 2025 deficit can reach the level of 4.9 % of GDP (EUR 6.6 bn.). Negative deviation from the approved budget amounts to 0.1 % of GDP (EUR 193 million).

[1]     Since the EU rules were not adequately set for Slovakia’s conditions, their compliance is not sufficient for the recovery of public finances.

Príspevok The first estimate of the 2026 deficit amounts to 4.4 % of GDP, the budget target can be exceeded by 0.3 % of GDP (EUR 402 million) (Budgetary Traffic Light January 2026) je zobrazený ako prvý na Rada pre rozpočtovú zodpovednosť.

• CBR has prepared an estimate of the GG deficit based on the results of the cash performance of the state budget at the end of December 2025. The share of the total state budget cash expenditures to the total GG expenditures consistent with ESA 2010 methodology equals 51 %. Further refinement of the estimate will be carried out after publication of cash performance results as well as the balance sheets for all GG entities.
• CBR has reduced the estimated level of the deficit compared to the November forecast by EUR 120 million, mainly due to the lower volume of military equipment deliveries (except for F-16 fighters, which were delivered in a number slightly exceeding previous assumptions). There was also an unexpected dividend payment by Slovenské elektrárne, with additional state income of EUR 170 million.
• According to the CBR, the deficit can reach the level of 5.0 % of GDP (EUR 6.8 bn.). Negative deviation from the approved budget amounts to 0.3 % of GDP (EUR 354 million).
• The most significant negative deviation in the CBR forecast compared to the budget comes from lower tax revenue and social contributions, mainly due to a lower income from VAT and CIT.
• On the other hand, the most significant positive deviation compared to the budget comes from a lower level of defense investment, mainly due to the delay in the delivery of military equipment (except for F-16 fighters). The estimated decrease in defense investment compared to the budget amounts to EUR 595 million.
• As a part of the budgetary traffic light, CBR also estimates the fulfillment of the nominal public expenditure ceiling approved in the budget. According to the CBR, the estimated public expenditure can reach EUR 60.7 bn., so the expenditure ceiling approved by the parliament would not be exceeded.

Príspevok Delay of military equipment deliveries (other than fighter jets) and dividends from Slovenské elektrárne reduced the deficit estimate for 2025 to 5.0 % of GDP (Budgetary Traffic Light December 2025) je zobrazený ako prvý na Rada pre rozpočtovú zodpovednosť.

• CBR has slightly increased the estimated level of GG deficit for 2025. The impact of changes compared to the October forecast on the GG balance is neutralized: higher expenditures on co-financing of the EU funds and of local governments are offset by savings in the state budget and higher nontax revenue.
• According to the CBR, the deficit can reach the level of 5.1 % of GDP (EUR 6.9 bn.). Negative deviation from the approved budget amounts to 0.4 % of GDP (EUR 479 million), which means the medium-level risk of the public deficit level exceeding the government objective.
• Compared to the government’s estimate published in the approved budget for years 2026 to 2028, the level of the CBR deficit forecast is higher by 0.1 % of GDP.
• The most significant negative deviation in the CBR forecast compared to the budget comes from lower tax revenue and social contributions, mainly due to a lower income from VAT and CIT.
• Two more F-16 fighters are expected to be delivered (and recorded into the deficit level) this year, meaning that a possible delay would reduce the deficit this year and worsen the balance in 2026.
• As a part of the budgetary traffic light, CBR also estimates the fulfillment of the nominal public expenditure ceiling approved in the budget. According to the CBR, the estimated public expenditure can reach EUR 60.6 bn., so the expenditure ceiling approved by the parliament would not be exceeded.

Príspevok The deficit estimate for 2025 remains unchanged at 5.1 % of GDP, the budget target is exceeded by 0.4 % of GDP (EUR 479 mil.) (Budgetary Traffic Light November 2025) je zobrazený ako prvý na Rada pre rozpočtovú zodpovednosť.

• CBR has slightly increased the estimated level of GG deficit for 2025. Month-to-month increase of the GG deficit level is mainly due to higher estimated energy compensations.
• According to the CBR, the deficit can reach the level of 5.1 % of GDP (EUR 6.9 bn.). Negative deviation from the approved budget amounts to 0.4 % of GDP (EUR 469 million), which means the medium-level risk of the public deficit level exceeding the government objective. The increase in the deviation from targets set by the government in % of GDP is, in addition to the slightly higher nominal deficit, mainly caused by the reduction of nominal GDP as part of the revision of data for previous years by the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic.
• Compared to the government’s estimate published in the approved budget for years 2026 to 2028, the level of the CBR deficit forecast is higher by 0.1 % of GDP.
• The most significant negative deviation in the CBR forecast compared to the budget comes from lower tax revenue and social contributions, mainly due to a lower income from VAT and CIT.
• As a part of the budgetary traffic light, CBR also estimates the fulfillment of the nominal public expenditure ceiling approved in the budget. According to the CBR, the estimated public expenditure can reach EUR 60.7 bn., so the expenditure ceiling approved by the parliament would not be exceeded. The risk of not meeting budget targets arises mainly from the shortfall on the revenue side of the budget.

Príspevok Higher energy compensations increased the 2025 deficit estimate to 5.1 % of GDP, the budget target remains exceeded by 0.4 % of GDP (EUR 469 mil.) (Budgetary Traffic Light October 2025) je zobrazený ako prvý na Rada pre rozpočtovú zodpovednosť.