{"id":19584,"date":"2023-08-22T08:27:05","date_gmt":"2023-08-22T06:27:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rrz.sk\/?p=19584"},"modified":"2023-09-07T11:07:22","modified_gmt":"2023-09-07T09:07:22","slug":"closer-to-finding-yeti-rethinking-the-output-gap-methodology-through-the-lens-of-fiscal-policy-stance-plausibility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rrz.sk\/en\/closer-to-finding-yeti-rethinking-the-output-gap-methodology-through-the-lens-of-fiscal-policy-stance-plausibility\/","title":{"rendered":"Closer to Finding Yeti (Rethinking the output gap methodology through the lens of fiscal policy stance plausibility)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>This study represents the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Council for Budget Responsibility (CBR).<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>This paper offers a synthesis of several approaches to measuring output gap in Slovakia and serves as an update of the original CBR work <span style=\"color: #13b5ea;\"><a style=\"color: #13b5ea;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rrz.sk\/en\/finding-yeti\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Finding Yeti<\/a> <\/span>after almost a decade. A \u201csuite of models\u201d approach is estimated and assessed to provide advantages over single models. Following the recommendation of the EU IFIs guide suggesting no one-size-fits-all approach for measuring output gap, our family of methods consist of two unobserved component models, principal component model, semi-structural model and Modified Hamilton filter. We propose a novelty approach to weighting the individual models capturing recent structural innovations in the economy to construct one central estimate of the output gap. Such a robust estimate is maximising its overall plausibility and applicability to prudent fiscal policy assessment.<\/p>\n<p><em>\u00a0<\/em><span style=\"color: #13b5ea;\"><em><strong>Keywords:<\/strong> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">output gap, unobserved component, trend, cycle, plausibility, Bayesian analysis, estimation<\/span><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #13b5ea;\"><strong><em>JEL &#8211; codes: <span style=\"color: #000000;\">C11, C13, C32, E32, E62 <\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This study represents the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Council for Budget Responsibility (CBR). This paper offers a synthesis of several approaches to measuring output gap in Slovakia and serves as an update of the original CBR work Finding Yeti after almost a decade. A \u201csuite of models\u201d [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":19594,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"h5ap_radio_sources":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[84,69],"class_list":["post-19584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-studies","tag-working-papers-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Closer to Finding Yeti (Rethinking the output gap methodology through the lens of fiscal policy stance plausibility) - Rada pre rozpo\u010dtov\u00fa zodpovednos\u0165<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rrz.sk\/en\/closer-to-finding-yeti-rethinking-the-output-gap-methodology-through-the-lens-of-fiscal-policy-stance-plausibility\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Closer to Finding Yeti (Rethinking the output gap methodology through the lens of fiscal policy stance plausibility) - Rada pre rozpo\u010dtov\u00fa zodpovednos\u0165\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This study represents the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Council for Budget Responsibility (CBR). This paper offers a synthesis of several approaches to measuring output gap in Slovakia and serves as an update of the original CBR work Finding Yeti after almost a decade. A \u201csuite of models\u201d [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rrz.sk\/en\/closer-to-finding-yeti-rethinking-the-output-gap-methodology-through-the-lens-of-fiscal-policy-stance-plausibility\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Rada pre rozpo\u010dtov\u00fa zodpovednos\u0165\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-08-22T06:27:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-09-07T09:07:22+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rrz.sk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Yeti_2023.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"961\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"601\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Lenka Zacharova\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Lenka Zacharova\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rrz.sk\/en\/closer-to-finding-yeti-rethinking-the-output-gap-methodology-through-the-lens-of-fiscal-policy-stance-plausibility\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rrz.sk\/en\/closer-to-finding-yeti-rethinking-the-output-gap-methodology-through-the-lens-of-fiscal-policy-stance-plausibility\/\",\"name\":\"Closer to Finding Yeti (Rethinking the output gap methodology through the lens of fiscal policy stance plausibility) - 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