Council for Budget Responsibility (CBR) estimates the 2026 general government (GG) deficit at 4.4 % of GDP
- CBR has slightly increased its estimate of the 2026 GG deficit. Compared with the June forecast, the expected deficit has slightly increased by EUR 27 million mainly due to faster-than-expected spending of state budget current expenditures.
- According to the CBR, the 2026 deficit could reach 4.4 % of GDP (EUR 6.2 billion), if the government does not adopt additional measures. This represents a negative deviation of 0.3 % of GDP (EUR 389 million) from the approved budget amounts, indicating a medium level of risk that the public deficit will exceed the government’s objective.
- Compared to the government’s estimate published in the Annual Progress Report 2026 for Slovakia, the level of the CBR deficit forecast is almost identical (a difference is EUR 33 million).
- The most significant negative deviation in the CBR forecast compared to the budget is the shortfall in taxes and social and healthcare contributions amounting to 0.3 % of GDP (EUR 437 million), mainly due to lower-than-expected CIT and VAT. The CIT shortfall is due to unexpected decline in the 2025 revenue, based on the corporate tax returns submitted to date. On the other hand, slower growth in household consumption than assumed in the budget is expected to reduce VAT revenue.