Faster expenditure growth raises the projected 2026 deficit; the budget target may be exceeded by 0.3 % of GDP (EUR 361 million) (Budgetary Traffic Light June 2026)

Council for Budget Responsibility (CBR) estimates the 2026 general government (GG) deficit at 4.4 % of GDP

• CBR has slightly increased its estimate of the 2026 GG deficit. Compared with the May forecast, the expected deficit has increased by EUR 118 million mainly due to faster growth in the wage bill and expenditure related to the EU Recovery and Resilience Plan.
• According to the CBR, the 2026 deficit could reach 4.4 % of GDP (EUR 6.2 billion), if the government does not adopt additional measures. This represents a negative deviation of 0.3 % of GDP (EUR 361 million) from the approved budget amounts, indicating a medium level of risk that the public deficit will exceed the government’s objective.
• Compared to the government’s estimate published in the Annual Progress Report 2026 for Slovakia, the level of the CBR deficit forecast is almost identical (a difference is EUR 5 million).
• The most significant negative deviation in the CBR forecast compared to the budget is the shortfall in taxes and social and healthcare contributions amounting to 0.4 % of GDP (EUR 527 million), mainly due to lower-than-expected CIT and VAT. The CIT shortfall is due to unexpected decline in the 2025 revenue, based on the corporate tax returns submitted to date. On the other hand, slower growth in household consumption than assumed in the budget is expected to reduce VAT revenue.