Council for Budget Responsibility (CBR) estimates the 2026 general government (GG) deficit at 4.5 % of GDP
- CBR has increased the estimated level of GG deficit in 2026. Compared with the January forecast, the deficit has risen by EUR 186 million mainly due to lower estimated tax revenues.
- According to the CBR, the 2026 deficit can reach the level of 4.5 % of GDP (EUR 6.4 bn.), under the assumption that the government does not take additional measures. Negative deviation from the approved budget amounts to 0.4 % of GDP (EUR 565 million), which means the medium-level risk of the public deficit level exceeding the government objective.
- The most significant negative deviation in the CBR forecast compared to the budget is the shortfall in taxes and social and healthcare contributions amounting to 0.5 % of GDP (EUR 766 million), mainly due to lower-than-expected VAT and labor taxes. The shortfall compared to the budget is mainly caused by less favorable economic development than was originally assumed in the budget, the slower growth is estimated for household consumption and nominal wages.
- The CBR identifies additional risks compared to the budget in the worse financial performance of local governments caused by additional expenditures associated with the municipal election year, as well as in higher healthcare spending due to the expected failure to fully implement the declared savings measures.
- On the other hand, the most significant positive impact on the GG balance compared to the budget comes from the better financial performance of other GG entities, mainly public universities and public transport companies.