Council for Budget Responsibility (CBR) estimates the 2025 general government (GG) deficit at 5.1 % of GDP
- CBR has slightly increased the estimated level of GG deficit for 2025. Month-to-month increase of the GG deficit level is mainly due to higher estimated energy compensations.
- According to the CBR, the deficit can reach the level of 5.1 % of GDP (EUR 6.9 bn.). Negative deviation from the approved budget amounts to 0.4 % of GDP (EUR 469 million), which means the medium-level risk of the public deficit level exceeding the government objective. The increase in the deviation from targets set by the government in % of GDP is, in addition to the slightly higher nominal deficit, mainly caused by the reduction of nominal GDP as part of the revision of data for previous years by the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic.
- Compared to the government’s estimate published in the approved budget for years 2026 to 2028, the level of the CBR deficit forecast is higher by 0.1 % of GDP.
- The most significant negative deviation in the CBR forecast compared to the budget comes from lower tax revenue and social contributions, mainly due to a lower income from VAT and CIT.
- As a part of the budgetary traffic light, CBR also estimates the fulfillment of the nominal public expenditure ceiling approved in the budget. According to the CBR, the estimated public expenditure can reach EUR 60.7 bn., so the expenditure ceiling approved by the parliament would not be exceeded. The risk of not meeting budget targets arises mainly from the shortfall on the revenue side of the budget.