Council for Budget Responsibility (CBR) estimates the 2025 general government (GG) deficit at 5.1 % of GDP
- CBR has slightly decreased the estimated level of GG deficit for 2025. Month-to-month decrease of the GG deficit level by EUR 36 million is mainly due to higher expected income from labor taxes, which results from faster fulfillment in previous months compared to the earlier assumptions.
- According to the CBR, the deficit can reach the level of 5.1 % of GDP (EUR 7.0 bn.), under the assumption that the government does not take additional measures. Negative deviation from the approved budget amounts to 0.4 % of GDP (EUR 577 million), which means the medium-level risk of the public deficit level exceeding the government objective.
- The most significant negative deviation in the CBR forecast compared to the budget comes from a lower tax income and social and healthcare contributions, mainly due to a lower income from VAT and CIT.
- On the other hand, the most significant positive impact on the GG balance compared to the budget comes from savings in social transfers due to the budget overestimation.
- As a part of the budgetary traffic light, CBR also estimates the fulfillment of the nominal public expenditure ceiling approved in the budget. According to the CBR, the estimated public expenditure can reach EUR 61.2 bn., so the expenditure ceiling approved by the parliament would be exceeded only slightly. The risk of not meeting budget targets arises mainly from the shortfall on the revenue side of the budget.