Council for Budget Responsibility (CBR) estimates the 2025 general government (GG) deficit at 5.2 % of GDP
- CBR has increased the estimated level of GG deficit for 2025. Month-to-month increase of the GG deficit level is caused by a lower tax and social and healthcare contributions revenue due to slower fulfillment in previous months as well as the expected slowdown in the economy.
- According to the CBR, the deficit can reach the level of 5.2 % of GDP (EUR 7.1 bn.), under the assumption that the government does not take additional measures. Negative deviation from the approved budget amounts to 0.5 % of GDP (EUR 614 million), which means the medium-level risk of the public deficit level exceeding the government objective.
- The most significant negative deviation in the CBR forecast compared to the budget comes from a lower tax income and social and healthcare contributions, mainly due to a lower income from VAT and CIT.
- As a part of the budgetary traffic light, CBR also estimates the fulfillment of the nominal public expenditure ceiling approved in the budget. According to the CBR, the estimated public expenditure can reach EUR 61.1 bn., so the expenditure ceiling approved by the parliament would not be exceeded. The risk of not meeting budget targets arises entirely from the shortfall on the revenue side of the budget.
- Estimated month-to-month fulfillment of the public expenditure ceiling decreased by EUR 234 million. Compared to the previous forecast, the spending of state budget expenditures slowed down and estimated costs of new measures in local governments decreased. These savings partially offset the negative impact of the shortfall in taxes and contributions on the deficit.