Council for Budget Responsibility (CBR) estimates the 2025 general government (GG) deficit at 5.2 % of GDP
- CBR has slightly increased the estimated level of GG deficit for 2025. Month-to-month increase of the GG deficit level by EUR 50 million is mainly due to worse expected performance of other GG entities and lower estimated tax revenues.
- According to the CBR, the deficit can reach the level of 5.2 % of GDP (EUR 7.1 bn.), under the assumption that the government does not take additional measures. Negative deviation from the approved budget amounts to 0.5 % of GDP (EUR 623 million), which means the medium-level risk of the public deficit level exceeding the government objective.
- Compared to the government’s estimate published in a mid-August report on expected budget outcome, the level of the CBR deficit forecast is higher by 0.1 % of GDP.
- The most significant negative deviation in the CBR forecast compared to the budget comes from a lower tax income and social and healthcare contributions, mainly due to a lower income from VAT and CIT.
- As a part of the budgetary traffic light, CBR also estimates the fulfillment of the nominal public expenditure ceiling approved in the budget. According to the CBR, the estimated public expenditure can reach EUR 61.1 bn., so the expenditure ceiling approved by the parliament would not be exceeded. The risk of not meeting budget targets arises mainly from the shortfall on the revenue side of the budget.