Council for Budget Responsibility (CBR) estimates the 2025 general government (GG) deficit at 5.0 % of GDP
- CBR has prepared an estimate of the GG deficit based on the results of the cash performance of the state budget at the end of December 2025. The share of the total state budget cash expenditures to the total GG expenditures consistent with ESA 2010 methodology equals 51 %. Further refinement of the estimate will be carried out after publication of cash performance results as well as the balance sheets for all GG entities.
- CBR has reduced the estimated level of the deficit compared to the November forecast by EUR 120 million, mainly due to the lower volume of military equipment deliveries (except for F-16 fighters, which were delivered in a number slightly exceeding previous assumptions). There was also an unexpected dividend payment by Slovenské elektrárne, with additional state income of EUR 170 million.
- According to the CBR, the deficit can reach the level of 5.0 % of GDP (EUR 6.8 bn.). Negative deviation from the approved budget amounts to 0.3 % of GDP (EUR 354 million).
- The most significant negative deviation in the CBR forecast compared to the budget comes from lower tax revenue and social contributions, mainly due to a lower income from VAT and CIT.
- On the other hand, the most significant positive deviation compared to the budget comes from a lower level of defense investment, mainly due to the delay in the delivery of military equipment (except for F-16 fighters). The estimated decrease in defense investment compared to the budget amounts to EUR 595 million.
- As a part of the budgetary traffic light, CBR also estimates the fulfillment of the nominal public expenditure ceiling approved in the budget. According to the CBR, the estimated public expenditure can reach EUR 60.7 bn., so the expenditure ceiling approved by the parliament would not be exceeded.