The forecast deficit has decreased slightly (Budgetary Traffic Light May 2022)

  • 2. 6. 2022

Secretariat of the Council for Budget Responsibility (SoCBR) estimates General Government Budget (GGB) deficit amounting to EUR 4,5 billion

• SoCBR has slightly decreased the estimated level of GGB deficit in 2022. A positive difference compared to the April forecast amounts to EUR 167 million (0.2 % of GDP). The positive change in the expected deficit level is mainly due to higher tax and non-tax revenues, primarily corporate income tax and income from the sale of emission allowances influenced by upward adjustment of results for 2021 based on current data. Under the assumption that the government does not take additional measures, the deficit can reach the amount of EUR 4.533 billion (4.3 % of GDP).

• Estimated deviation between the SoCBR’s forecast for GGB deficit in 2022 and approved government budget remains positive and amounts to EUR 680 million (0.7 % of GDP), which means that the risk of public deficit rising above the government objective is low. However, development of public finances is still affected by high uncertainty due to a rapid rise in the price level and the war conflict in Ukraine.

• Compared to the government’s deficit estimate published in the Stability Programme for years 2022 to 2025 is deficit forecasted by the SoCBR lower by EUR 866 million (0.8 % of GDP). The positive deviation results mainly from the lower expected spending of state budget expenditures.

• Expenditures for financing of measures approved by the government to support families increased the forecasted deficit by an amount of EUR 277 million (0.3 % of GDP), of which the cost of one-off measures represents EUR 106 million (0.1 % of GDP).

• The total fiscal impact of government measures related to the war in Ukraine amounts to EUR 331 mil. (0.3% of GDP). Based on current information, SoCBR expects reimbursement of expenditures from EU resources amounting to EUR 209 million (0.2 % of GDP).

• The development of public finances was negatively affected by the ongoing pandemic in the beginning of current year. Expected total budgetary impact of pandemic government measures amounts to a total of EUR 839 million (0.8 % of GDP) and compared to a corresponding budgetary reserve contributes to an increase in the deficit level amounting to EUR 72 million (0.1 % of GDP).