Secretariat of the Council for Budget Responsibility (SoCBR) estimates the 2023 General Government Budget (GGB) deficit at 5.7 % of GDP
• SoCBR has increased the estimated level of GGB deficit in 2023. Negative difference compared to the August forecast amounts to EUR 207 million. Under the assumption that the government does not take additional measures, the deficit can reach the amount of EUR 6 974 million (5.7 % of GDP). Month-to-month increase of the GG deficit level is caused by lower revenue from labor taxes due to the slowdown of the economy expected at the end of the year.
• Estimated deviation between the SoCBR’s forecast for the 2023 GGB balance and the approved budget is positive at 0.7 % of GDP, which means that the risk of the public deficit level rising above the government objective remains low.
• Compared to the government’s estimate published in a mid-August report on expected budget outcome, the level of the deficit forecast by SoCBR is lower by 1.1 % of GDP.
• Expected expenditures of government measures to compensate high energy prices reach the level of EUR 2 868 million (2.4 % of GDP), of which expenses in the amount of EUR 1 074 million (0.9 % of GDP) should be financed from EU funds. After considering budgeted reserve, revenue from the windfall taxation of petroleum companies and electricity production companies is the overall budgetary impact of measures lower than budgeted level in the amount of EUR 1 579 million (1.3 % of GDP).