The deficit estimate for 2023 increased to the level of EUR 7.3 billion due to expenditures on special allowance for pensioners (Budgetary Traffic Light November 2023)

  • 1. 12. 2023

Secretariat of the Council for Budget Responsibility (SoCBR) estimates the 2023 General Government Budget (GGB) deficit at 6.0 % of GDP

• SoCBR has increased the estimated level of GGB deficit in 2023. The negative difference compared to the October forecast amounts to EUR 539 million. Under the assumption that the government does not take additional measures, the deficit can reach the amount of EUR 7 310 million (6.0 % of GDP). Month-to-month increase of the GG deficit level is due to newly approved expenditures on special allowance for pensioners.

• Estimated deviation between the SoCBR’s forecast for the 2023 GGB balance and the total approved budget is formally positive at 0.4 % of GDP, which means that the risk of the public deficit level rising above the government objective remains low. The Ministry of Finance (MoF) in the last published forecast estimates deficit in the amount of EUR 7 550 million (6.2 % of GDP); compared to the MoF’s estimate, the SoCBR’s estimate is lower by 0.2 % of GDP.

• Compared to the planned deficit excluding energy compensations reserve, the deficit is estimated to be higher by up to EUR 973 million (0.8 % of GDP).

• Expected expenditures of government measures to compensate high energy prices reach the level of EUR 2 967 million (2.4 % of GDP), of which expenses in the amount of EUR 1 100 million (0.9 % of GDP) should be financed from EU funds. After considering budgeted reserve, revenue from the windfall taxation of petroleum companies and electricity production companies is the overall budgetary impact of measures lower than budgeted level in the amount of EUR 1 469 million (1.2 % of GDP).