Secretariat of the Council for Budget Responsibility (SoCBR) estimates General Government Budget (GGB) deficit amounting to EUR 3,8 billion
• SoCBR has slightly decreased the estimated level of GGB deficit in 2022. A positive difference compared to the August forecast amounts to EUR 29 million (0.03 % of GDP). Under the assumption that the government does not take additional measures, the deficit can reach the amount of EUR 3.760 billion (3.5 % of GDP). Despite additional expenditures resulting from new government measures, the GGB deficit is decreasing due to the persistently slow spending of state budget capital expenditures and investments from the RRP.
• The current estimate includes expenditures for the government’s proposed second payment of the 13th pension in the amount of EUR 208 million (0.2 % of GDP). In case of approval of the amendment to the State Budget Act, resources would be created to finance additional expenditures, which could increase the GGB deficit by up to EUR 1 290 million (1.3 % of GDP).
• Estimated deviation between the SoCBR’s forecast for GGB deficit in 2022 and approved government budget remains positive and amounts to EUR 1 454 million (1.4 % of GDP), which means that the risk of public deficit rising above the government objective is low. However, development of public finances is still affected by high uncertainty due to a rapid rise in the price level and the war conflict in Ukraine.
• Income from tax revenues and social contributions represent the most significant positive impact on the estimated level of deficit by EUR 1 684 million (1.6 % of GDP). We expect higher budgetary revenues especially from taxes, where high inflation increases the growth of macroeconomic bases compared to budget assumptions (especially labor taxes and VAT).
• Absorption of EU funds and RRP is still lower than previously expected, what is reflected in a low level of co-financing expenditures compared to the budget with a deviation amounting to EUR 326 million (0.3 % of GDP).