Secretariat of the Council for Budget Responsibility (SoCBR) estimates the 2023 General Government Budget (GGB) deficit at 5.8 % of GDP
• SoCBR has decreased the estimated level of GGB deficit in 2023. The positive difference compared to the November forecast amounts to EUR 305 million. Under the assumption that the government does not take additional measures, the deficit can reach the amount of EUR 7 005 million (5.8 % of GDP). Month-to-month decrease of the GG deficit level is due to higher tax and nontax revenue.
• Estimated deviation between the SoCBR’s forecast for the 2023 GGB balance and the total approved budget is formally positive at 0.7 % of GDP, which means that the risk of the public deficit level rising above the government objective remains low. The Ministry of Finance (MoF) in the Draft Budgetary Plan for 2024-2026 estimates deficit in the amount of EUR 7 949 million (6.5 % of GDP); compared to the MoF’s estimate, the SoCBR’s estimate is lower by 0.7 % of GDP.
• Compared to the planned deficit excluding energy compensations reserve, the deficit is estimated to be higher by up to EUR 586 million (0.5 % of GDP).
• Expected expenditures of government measures to compensate high energy prices reach the level of EUR 2 982 million (2.4 % of GDP), of which expenses in the amount of EUR 1 033 million (0.9 % of GDP) should be financed from EU funds. After considering budgeted reserve, revenue from the windfall taxation of petroleum companies and electricity production companies, the overall budgetary impact of measures is lower than budgeted level in the amount of EUR 1 378 million (1.2 % of GDP).